On weekend, India banned export of wheat and onion seeds. This step taken by government is taken to fight the rising inflation which is now above RBI MPC target. And this is why, Indian market participants are selling. Everyone is now expecting RBI's hawkish stance from accommodative. US market saw bounce back on Friday but today in the early morning trading in red. FIIs are still selling heavily though their net position in index is almost near to March 2020 level.
Technically, Nifty is sell on rise till now and reaching to oversold zone. Any positive news can lift up nifty but only for selling from high. Today again there will be volatility, moving in both side. Traders are advised to go with selling Nifty near resistance and buying near support. Strict stop loss you must follow.
Bank nifty is also very weak and sell on rise is the best strategy to trade. Near resistance one can go for sell and near support which is very far, one can go for buy. Wherever you trade you must have strict stop loss and try to trade in both sides depending on where it opens.
Bearishness is still there and V shape recovery seems difficult to achieve. Inflation, Russia Ukraine war, and lockdown in China are triggers for the market. Chinese authority signaling lifting up lockdown gradually and hence crude and metal prices set to rise. This will again push inflation up in India. Bond yield on the other hand, came down slightly which is positive trigger. Overall still there is confusion.
Technically, Nifty is trying to show reversal. Yesterday we saw indecisiveness in Indian market and formed doji candle. at the bottom doji is is reversal candle but unless it closes above 16080 traders still can go with sell on rise strategy. Fall in Vix will be first signal for reversal. So wait and watch and do nothing will be today's strategy
Yesterday we saw inside bar candle(bullish harami) on chart in Bank nifty which is reversal signal. Closing above 34000 will be confirmation of bullish reversal. On lower side, 33000 will be support for today and closing below this level will be again continuation of sell off. Wait and watch and act accordingly. From here market can go anywhere but my conviction is for upside if it doesn't break 33000
As expected, we saw bounce from lower level in Nifty after heavy sell off. Yesterday, WPI data for India came which is the highest in almost 9 years. This is negative trigger but seems factored in for now. In US retail sales came positively which shows though there is recession risk due to rising inflation consumption is still intact. This is again positive trigger. But rising inflation is still posing risk for stock market.
Technically, yesterday's upside move should be taken as pullback rally for now. Overall structure is changed to buy on dip for short term only(3-4 days). Traders can buy Nifty if it comes near given support area. And can go for sell near resistance area. Sell off risk is still there from higher level so traders must follow strict stop loss.
Banknifty gave closing above crucial level yesterday and hence we can expect upside movement but traders must buy on lower level. Don't buy if it opens with gap up. Let it come near support area then go for buy. On higher side, selling can be done too near resistance. Strict stop loss is must wherever you trade.
VIX is cooling so intraday wild swing can be seen less often
TCS can be bought with stop loss below 3350 on closing basis. First target is 3600 and second target is 3800. This is investment pick not trading pick
Resistance- 16080(if opens below 16000)- 16400(second)
Yesterday we saw bloodbath in US market due to Russia- Ukraine war escalation and hawkish comment from Jerome Powel on rate hike. This kind of market is very unpredictable as of now and sell off is intensifying gradually. Today is weekly expiry too for Nifty and banknifty.
Technically, Nifty is expected to open with huge gap down so fresh selling is not recommended. Let it open first and if Nifty comes near first resistance then we should look for selling Nifty. On lower side, 15700-15800 is support zone where we can expect some bounce. Near support level we can look for buy side position. Most importantly, if Nifty closes today with long green candle then it will be confirmation of bottom formation. If red candle appears then it will be confirmation of continuation of sell off. Volatility will increase again so swing in both sides we can see. Trade with strict stop loss or leave trading
As there will be gap down in Banknifty, traders should look for good opportunity with better risk reward before jumping into trade. Avoid volatility and wait for either come near support or resistance. Near support area we should look for buy and near resistance we should look for sell. Most likely, banknifty will trade between 33500- 34000 after gap down opening. This is why, I personally would like to avoid for today.
Again we are going to see gap up with at least one percent in Nifty. Uncertainty is still there, playing in both sides with sell on rise bias. Indonesia has lift up ban on palm oil which is positive trigger for Indian market. FMCG companies where palm oil is used as raw material will be in focus today. But overall inflation situation is still at dangerous level which has to come down in upcoming days.
Technically, Nifty is trying to form bottom for next rally. 2-3 days of volatility between 15700 and 16100 range will for bottom and we will see upside move. Closing above 16080 is important for bull to sustain. Below 15700 Nifty will be weak. My personal view is to create long position if Nifty comes below after gap up opening. Volatility again will decrease today.
Banknifty will open today with gap up opening. The pattern is almost like Nifty. 2-3 days trading between 33000-34000 will form bottom in Bank nifty. And once it closes above 34000 we will see good upside move. Below 33000 selling will resume again
Indian government has slashed excise duty on petroleum products which is positive trigger for Indian market. On wednesday, FOMC minute will be released which will give some clue on how Federal Reserve will proceed ahead to curb inflation. This week is also monthly expiry for index and stock futures so, increased volatility can be seen.
Technically On friday, Indian market saw good buying and in US market after sharp fall we saw smart recovery from bottom. This is why, I am slightly bullish and would like to go for buy on dip strategy in Nifty. 16000 will be strong support for today. Closing below 16000 will weaken Nifty again. On higher side, 16400-16480 is profit booking zone
Bank nifty has the same pattern like Nifty. So, with the same buy on dip strategy we would like to go. First support is near 34000 and then 33600. Closing below 34000 will be again selling signal. On higher side, 34800 will be profit booking zone. One can sell near resistance too.